In the news today:
- RW Johnson’s expert insight into current events
- Level 3 lockdown regulations
- Schools to reopen on the 1st of June, 2020
- Did the Minister of Education let the cat out of the bag?
Hello, and welcome to Morning Shot. Your daily dose of news analysis.
RW Johnson’s expert insight:
I’m going to share with you a little bit of commentary by RW Johnson, from Politics Web. If you don’t read RW Johnson or Frans Cronje, you are not equipped with the arguments and the analysis needed to make sense of what is actually happening. So I highly recommend that you read both. RW Johnson, in this piece, says, the longer the lockdown happens, the more debts South Africa accrues, and the more economic damage we accumulate as a nation.
And as a result of this, some of the actors are taking their positions on the chessboard. When he’s talking about actors in this regard, he’s talking about the South African Communist Party and COSATU. Let me give you a few of the alternatives. It is to be decided whether South Africa asks for an IMF bailout, and accepts the significant structural reforms from that bailout. Another option is for South Africa to embark on these reforms on its own, without involving the IMF. However, the debt of the country will be probably too big for this to be possible. And, assuming we don’t have an IMF bailout. And we don’t have reformed internally. The only key alternative is to keep printing more and more money to pay for everything, which leads to a Zimbabwe-style outcome of capital flight and hyperinflation.
Then, Johnson goes into some history, explaining why we are where we are at the moment, and the most crucial element of this is that we had a drastic loss of competitiveness. Comparing emerging markets, like Ethiopia, Vietnam, China, and South Africa during the same period of the ’90s and early 2000s, South Africa has always lagged behind all of those thanks to BEE, corruption and the trade unions. He goes on to say, look at what the SACP thinks of the World Bank. The IMF and the hard-left think these are created, to undermine the newly won independence of X colonial countries. By lending them money, which they find hard to pay back.
So you’re laden with debt as a country. You don’t want to go to the IMF because you think they are colonizers, what is there to do? Well, according to the SACP, you exert political will. Namely, the Covid-19 National Command Council, with its firm top-down government rule by decree with no opposition and no parliamentary scrutiny.
Every decree is immediately and harshly implemented, and there are a few papers from the communists have come out during the lockdown. That all talk about collective leadership. And structural reform and re-industrialization and transformation. Exactly what Cyril has been parroting for the past few weeks.
So, we think of the internal machinations of the ANC on the ANC-NEC. There are many communists as well as Trade Unions. Because of Cyril’s collective decision type of leadership style, which I wouldn’t call leadership, I’d call it a weakness. If the NEC agrees, Cyril has to accept whatever they agree upon. Which, for the moment, appears to be no IMF whatsoever. But fundamentally, why don’t the Unions want the IMF, why doesn’t the South African communist party want the IMF? It is straightforward; The reforms that the IMF will bring to South Africa will kill the Trade Union movement and will destroy the Communist Party.
RW Johnson writes; SACP and COSATU know an IMF bailout, would mean liberalization of labour laws, SOE’s will have to pay their way or be privatized. Their public service numbers and salaries will have to be cut. If that happens, they cannot survive. So you’ve got a giant, enormous ballooning debt on the one hand, and you don’t want the IMF bailout on the other hand. So what does the SACP want to do? The same as always, they want more political power. And a perfect example of this is comrade Gordhan of all people. He wants to make SAA and SAA Express fly again, despite having absolutely no money to do so.
I highly recommend you read the whole piece. It is linked below, and it’s an excellent idea to just check on Politics Web every now and again. It’s a unique website full of very, very good analysis and RW Johnson is really at the top of his game in this particular piece.
It’s vitally important to understand the inner machinations of the South African Communist Party, the labour unions and the ANC. How they coordinate to each other, create social compacts, and how Cyril Ramaphosa, (despite the claims to being a reformist) is, incapable of being reformed, as he has to follow whatever the majority says, or he doesn’t tell the SACP and Unions to go screw themselves, and he will put in the reforms himself. Both of which excludes him from being a good president. If you don’t understand these machinations, you don’t understand the ANC, and you don’t understand the political space in which we are playing. So please do read that article.
Level 3 Lockdown Regulations
So, there may be a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, but that pot of gold might contain a few turds rather than actual gold. According to premiere, David Makhura, Gauteng province could move to level three come June, so the entire Province will move to level three at the beginning of June. And interestingly, he says there’ll be a significant focus on the townships during the start of level three. Apparently in the suburbs. There are more recoveries and fewer active cases, though, in the townships, there are newer confirmed cases.
And he said the best scenario for Gauteng would be if Covid-19 peaked at the end of June, or, in August. Well, I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but June is still two weeks away. This is not at all success, by any means. However, it does appear that they might want to punish the Western Cape, in particular Cape Town.
Patel acknowledged the DA’s request to get the lockdown lifted in Western Cape but said that a comparative analysis spoke for itself. What that comparative analysis actually means, is up for debate because once again, we don’t have access to it. After all, we are serfs, and Patel would like to emphasize that they must, that the political parties must de-politicized the coved-19 crisis. “We must put aside all our historical differences and work hard to contain the spread of the virus. We need less grandstanding regarding different provinces, we’ll be taking into account the feedback of each region and then the president will make an announcement soon.” It’s a bit rich for the Commie in Chief to say. “Less grandstanding is needed during the Covid-19 crisis.”
This is the man who says you can’t buy t-shirts or open-toed shoes. This is the man that banned e-commerce and destroyed hundreds of thousands of jobs in the name of ideology, in the name of grandstanding. This is the man who banned hot food at supermarkets. I mean, if anyone is less grandstanding, it’s Ebrahim Patel himself.
So, if Ebrahim Patel wants less grandstanding, maybe he should look in the mirror.
But, as to what level three actually means; thankfully, Dear South Africa has a convenient guide for you, and I will go through a few points with you. It is linked below, for you to read for yourself.
So a big one, in terms of personal movement, walking, jogging, and cycling is permitted. It appears that there is no timeframe for those things. So hopefully you could do all those things any time of the day. Gardening and swimming pool services will be allowed. There will be limited domestic air travel with a restriction on the number of flights per day, and it must bear authorization for such trips.
Commercial real estate will be permitted, but not private or residential real estate. Finally, all hardware stores will be open. All stationery stores and all bookstores will be allowed, all household appliances will be allowed to be manufactured and sold. All clothing and the sale of motor vehicles will be permitted as well. However, for alcohol, you might be allowed to consume alcohol off-premises, between Monday and Wednesday, from 08:00 AM to 12:00 PM.
The full list is in the link above. Very importantly, Dear South Africa actually has a campaign, to sort of change these regulations and they’re asking the public to participate in those. So for those don’t know, Dear South Africa is a public participation portal. They crowdsource public participation in legislative matters like these regulations. Then they send those to the relevant authorities when necessary. Last time they got over 30,000 submissions to the NCCC. Hopefully, this time they can get a bit more. Find the link below, to ensure that your voice is heard, and hopefully, we can change a few of the regulations.
Schools reopen on the 1st of June
In other news, it appears that the schools will be opening from the 1st of June. However, there are a few catches. Apparently, grades seven to 12 will start on the 1st of June. That was later confirmed to be only grade sevens, and grade twelves will be sent back to school. No other grades for the moment. And she has defended this decision, citing numerous reports from international humanitarian bodies that said a prolonged day of schooling impacted children immensely.
Unfortunately, there wasn’t much else from that press conference. However…
Did the Minister of Education let the cat out of the bag?
A fascinating piece of footage that a keen-eyed viewer managed to grab for me does raise some questions. The clip, shown below, clearly shows the Minister of Education, inadvertently referring to the NCCC, not as an “Advisory Panel” but in fact, as the Decision Makers.
She is directly quoted saying: “We had to get permission, from the NCC, that indeed our plans are accepted. Now that it has been approved, that we can start opening schools from the 1st of June.”
For those who don’t know, what the National Command Coronavirus Council is. In short, it’s the board that the president concocted under the disaster management act.
The very council behind the reason why the DA is going to court to see whether that is constitutional.
Can you have a counsel that overrides parliament in terms of promulgating regulation? Now, of course, the minister could have misspoken, or she could be mistaken. But, what if this slip of the tongue, actually showed that the NCC, is actually making all the decisions? Because, if the NCC is making these decisions without cabinet, all the decisions have been entirely illegitimate until now. Unfortunately, we don’t know because the NCC refuses to release any information that it has about its own mandate and about how it comes to the decisions it actually makes.
Not everyone was happy with the opening of schools, a former politician, Mmusi Maimane had the following to say: “I’m a parent. I’m an uncle and a concerned citizen. I don’t think the basic department of education, is ready to open schools, this is rushed. This is risky. Please join me in advocating for the reopening of schools when it’s actually safe.” However, when you actually go read his petition, there is no evidence for his claim whatsoever. On the contrary, his proposal is for schools to remain closed for a further three month period. That is absolute insanity. There’s absolutely no evidence showing that children are carriers of the disease or that they get infected as much as the elderly or the infirmed. In my opinion, schools during their being closed in the first place, but are going to be Mmusi, we need another three months of kids staying at home.
So how will those kids get fed if they rely on feeding schemes? How will parents go back to work if the kids stay at home? None of this makes much sense, to be honest, and there’s a critical choice to be made here. Don’t send your kids if you don’t want them to go.
Very, very simple. As for me, my kid is going to school. I hope your kids are going to school. The sooner everyone goes back to school, the more illegitimate this lockdown actually becomes. But then again, if this petition of Mmusi fails, he is more than welcome to keep selling his Boerewors to the people of South Africa.
With that, I end today’s article. Thank you for joining. If you liked the content, please subscribe to the channel and please do share this if you know someone who can find it useful. Have a good day.